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cheese sandwich's avatar

Reasons for Israel to push for regime change now: Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, etc. are down. Russia is occupied with Ukraine. China is still reluctant to provide overt assistance to allies; perhaps their covert support is significant. Israel and Zionism are extremely unpopular with all those < 40 years old, and this will only get worse. Christians, even those in America, are becoming very opposed to Zionism. It is increasingly difficult to dominate the narrative. There was significant opposition to the Covid narrative, and it is going to be harder to dominate the narrative over time. This is a generational opportunity for Israel, and they probably can't wait another 25 years to go for a regime change owing to their own internal difficulties (at least, that is what I've heard). Forcing Trump to act against Iran will end up depleting all of his political capital for domestic policies and provide justification to the Left to further riot. Recognizing that America is exhausted, Israel would want America to significantly degrade Iran now because the US will be in much worse shape in 25 years. American involvement could lead to America ultimately exiting the Middle East. Would that be part of the desired outcome? Beat Iran and the US at once, leaving Israel as hegemon in the Middle East? There's a strong sense of inevitability both that Israel will wage war on Iran and that America, like all empires, one day has to go home. Now or never.

I sense that the 2 week pause is in part due to the White House feeling the need to take the temperature of American society before acting. I assume that only an air campaign can be waged, and since American casualties should be low, that may make the war more palatable. Perhaps the American military losses would be worse than imagined: supposedly, Iran has Chinese anti-ship weapons and SU-35/37s stored underground. Still, it would be a nearly impossible sell; well, they probably wouldn't sell it at all. The Covid narrative was difficult for the layman to follow and understand because a lot of the reporting involved statistics. With a war, initiated by Israel, the situation and moral dimension is simpler to comprehend. (And people that weren't following the events in Gaza will get caught up with all of those atrocities). Covid led many to learn about past conspiracies. Doing so can deeply change how you see the world. You begin to apply a different set of cognitive heuristics. A lot of people are on the lookout for false flags. It is very significant that people even know that term.

Despite the aforementioned points arguing for the inevitability of large-scale conflict, I'm feeling more hopeful that things will settle down.

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Fines et Initia's avatar

All good points about the background for Israel's actions. I tend to share your assessment of Israel's geopolitical calculations. As you said, time is of the essence here. Just as the West faces a demographic crisis, so does Israel.

And the United States, as guarantor of Israeli sovereignty, is obviously hitting a steep decline demographically, yes, but also in competence, and in widespread support of Israel (as you pointed out.)

I suspect that this is why the Zionists decided to risk backing the somewhat unpredictable Trump for president rather than the Democrats whom they normally prefer: Trump was more likely to serve Netanyahu's interests.

The plan seems to be for Israel to gain enough territory and reduce its neighbors' capacity that it can achieve a greater level of self-defense and autonomy. So far, events back this up, again as you pointed out. Gaza is wrecked. Hezbollah is basically broken in Lebanon. Assad is no more. Now we have this Iran War. It's very possible that the Zionist plan always intended to drag the United States into that overall war at some point. Sort of a pump and dump, while the pump is still worthwhile.

I'm 50/50 on whether Trump gives these Jews their full-scale air war in Iran for this round. That's what kind of makes this fun. For once, it's hard to predict, and the stakes are high.

Here's another bit of food for thought, if you're of a spiritual doomsday mindset: the 10-year anniversary of Obergefell v. Hodges is June 26, the Supreme Court case that imposed homosexual "marriage" on the United States. The United States is literally Sodom at this point, and one way or another, the United States will be judged if we don't collectively repent. Just one more thing to consider. I expect I'll write more about that next week.

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